Well I think your O date may be right.
When I charted I always got a slight temp drop at 4 dpo (I think its due to a surge of estrogen or something) and I know that it is not uncommon for women to have this happen.
So based on that info I think FF might have your date right.
I would do what you planned to do. Wait until 18 dpo, if no

and no

then change the date.